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Previsoes desportivas are multifaceted.There are plenty of opinions on the web, both one betting model and the other. Let’s start with the definitions.

Out of the line bets or long term bets – usually appear in the line of bookmakers for events that are in the top 3 of the year. These are usually the World or European Football Championships, less often the World Hockey Championships, the Olympics. The odds for these events can be known long before the start of the event, from six months to a year. The leading BKs present them in their promotions, banners, etc.

Pre-match bets or last minute bets are bets which are placed on the line a few days and sometimes a few hours before the event.

Long-term bets change over time. Sometimes the line like this casino, for example, can be re-written dramatically from the original line up, so that former underdogs become favourites. A lot of factors influence the odds: the players’ line-up, coaches and mental attitude. As a rule, the line-up for the World Cup will appear one year before the event. During this time, everything can change: players may take part in their championships, they may get injured and retire. The coach of the national team may change, and the new coach will bring in a completely different squad than his predecessor had planned. The example of our national team is very telling. There is a long-standing personal conflict between coach Stanislav Cherchesov and striker Igor Denisov, who was not included in the squad. But because of poorly played friendlies with the teams of Brazil and France, the coach himself may think about his place in the Russian national team. Vasily Utkin, a well-known commentator and blogger, whose opinion is listened to by many football functionaries, is also pouring more oil into the fire. He is in favour of a new coach. Whether this will happen or not, in the near future or after the Championship is not yet known.

Conflict between Denisov and Cherchesov

Among other things, a new football star can emerge in any team, who will almost single-handedly change the entire game of his national team. And of a very topical and not at all speculative nature – a change in the political situation where, for reasons beyond their control, a number of national teams cannot take part in the competition. The Olympics in South Korea, and earlier in Brazil, have shown that this is a very realistic plan and that no team is immune from politicised decisions by either their own federations, or the organisers of the competitions.

The odds, which are put up for the game a few days before the match, are not subject to much change. The usual 1-4% fluctuations are quite acceptable and fit into a normal Gaussian distribution.

In terms of ROI, the budget turnover ratio, it is without a doubt more profitable to wager just before the match. After all, by betting for the long term, even in the event of further winnings, the money will be frozen until the results are announced. Count how many times they could be put into action and make a profit during the long wait for the match.

On the other hand, it is on the release of the line that the bookies themselves can make mistakes. Which you might well take advantage of. A bookmaker’s line is formed not only by their own analysts, but also by looking at other betting odds and the actions of the players. Odds on popular events and markets can drop (decrease) quickly, and you have to be one of the first to get something at a “good” price. It is not uncommon for bookmakers to make special offers to their players with higher odds. Usually these promotions are limited in time and you have to get them in time.

In the case of pre-match betting, the odds are stable. A real chance to get an edge over the bookmaker is good match analysis. In order to gather enough of it to make a successful bet, you have to analyse a lot of information: line-ups, coaches, injuries, substitutions. You should also take into account the personality of the referee – there are those who let you play hard, and there are those who give 5 red cards and 3 penalties in one game. The mental attitude and general team spirit will also be a big help in making a good prediction. As we see, to work properly even a single prediction you need about 2-3 hours, or even more, of pure time. And even then, as frustrating as it may be, mistakes and losses can happen.

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